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Question: A young entrepreneur has just raised $30,


A young entrepreneur has just raised $30,000 from investors, and she would like to invest it while she continues her fund-raising in hopes of starting her company one year from now. She wants to do due diligence and understand the risk of each of her investment options. After speaking with her colleagues in finance, she believes that she has three choices: (1) she can purchase a $30,000 certificate of deposit (CD); (2) she can invest in a mutual fund with a balanced portfolio; or (3) she can invest in a growth stock that has a greater potential payback but also has greater volatility. Each of her options will yield a different payback on her $30,000,
depending on the state of the economy.

During the next year, she knows that the CD yields a constant annual percentage rate, regardless of the state of the economy. If she invests in a balanced mutual fund, she estimates that she will earn as much as 12% if the economy remains strong, but could possibly lose as much as 4% if the economy takes a downturn. Finally, if she invests all $30,000 in a growth stock, experienced investors tell her that she can earn as much as 40% in a strong economy, but may lose as much as 40% in a poor economy.

Estimating these returns, along with the likelihood of a strong economy, is challenging. Therefore, a “sensitivity analysis” is often conducted, where figures are computed using a range of values for each of the uncertain parameters in the problem. Following this advice, this investor decides to compute measures for a range of interest rates for CDs, a range of returns for the mutual fund, and a range of returns for the growth stock. In addition, the likelihood of a strong economy is unknown, so she will vary these probabilities as well.

Assume that the probability of a strong economy over the next year is 0.3, 0.5, or 0.7. To help this investor make an informed decision, evaluate the expected value and volatility of each of her investments using the following ranges of rates of growth:

CD: Look up the current annual rate for the return on a 3-year CD and use this value {0.5%.
mutual fund: Use values of 8%, 10%, and 12% for a strong economy and values of 0%, -2%, and -4% for a weak economy.
growth stock: Use values of 10%, 25%, and 40% in a strong economy and values of -10%, -25%, and -40% in a weak economy.

Discuss the expected returns and uncertainty of each of the alternative investment options for this investor in each of the scenarios you analyzed. Be sure to compare the volatility of each of her options.


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> Prior to the mayoral election discussed in Exercise 33, the newspaper also conducted a poll. The paper surveyed a random sample of registered voters stratified by political party, age, sex, and area of residence. This poll predicted that Amabo would win

> A local TV station conducted an “Instant Poll” to predict the winner in the upcoming mayoral election. Evening news viewers were invited to phone in their votes, with the results to be announced on the late-night news. Based on the phone calls, the stati

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> For the following reports about statistical studies, identify the following items (if possible). If you can’t tell, then say so—this often happens when we read about a survey. a) The population b) The population parameter of interest c) The sampling fram

> For the following reports about statistical studies, identify the following items (if possible). If you can’t tell, then say so—this often happens when we read about a survey. a) The population b) The population parameter of interest c) The sampling fram

> For the following reports about statistical studies, identify the following items (if possible). If you can’t tell, then say so—this often happens when we read about a survey. a) The population b) The population parameter of interest c) The sampling fram

> For the following reports about statistical studies, identify the following items (if possible). If you can’t tell, then say so—this often happens when we read about a survey. a) The population b) The population parameter of interest c) The sampling fram

> For the following reports about statistical studies, identify the following items (if possible). If you can’t tell, then say so—this often happens when we read about a survey. a) The population b) The population parameter of interest c) The sampling fram

> For the following reports about statistical studies, identify the following items (if possible). If you can’t tell, then say so—this often happens when we read about a survey. a) The population b) The population parameter of interest c) The sampling fram

> For the following reports about statistical studies, identify the following items (if possible). If you can’t tell, then say so—this often happens when we read about a survey. a) The population b) The population parameter of interest c) The sampling fram

> For the following reports about statistical studies, identify the following items (if possible). If you can’t tell, then say so—this often happens when we read about a survey. a) The population b) The population parameter of interest c) The sampling fram

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> Even though commercial airlines have excellent safety records, in the weeks following a crash, airlines often report a drop in the number of passengers, probably because people are afraid to risk flying. a) A travel agent suggests that since the law of

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> Corporations are also very interested in the value of their brand. The following chart displays the value of the top 6 carbonated soft drink brands in 2015 as collected by Millward Brown (www.millwardbrown .com/brandz/top-global-brands/2015/brand-categor

> Multinational corporations face stiff competition in the carbonated drink category (also known as soda or pop, depending on where you live). Data were collected on the 2015 U.S. market share of leading sellers of carbonated soft drinks, summarized in the

> For each description of data in Exercises 7 to 26, identify the W’s, name the variables, specify for each variable whether its use indicates it should be treated as categorical or quantitative, and for any quantitative variable identify the units in whic

> For each description of data in Exercises 7 to 26, identify the W’s, name the variables, specify for each variable whether its use indicates it should be treated as categorical or quantitative, and for any quantitative variable identify the units in whic

> A grocery supplier believes that the mean number of broken eggs per dozen is 0.6, with a standard deviation of 0.5. You buy 3 dozen eggs without checking them. a) How many broken eggs do you expect to get? b) What’s the standard deviation? c) Is it ne

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